Something’s Off in South Florida Real Estate

There’s something weird happening in the South Florida real estate market right now. If you're in it every day — like we are — you can feel it.

It’s officially a buyer’s market. There’s more than six months of inventory sitting, and yet… sellers still want COVID-era prices. Interest rates haven’t dropped, the Fed hasn’t flinched, and while things haven’t collapsed, they’re definitely not healthy.

Transactions are down roughly 12% on average. And even though more sellers are starting to negotiate below asking price, we’re still seeing a big gap between what buyers can afford and what sellers expect to get.

The market feels like it’s paused — but it’s really trying to correct.

What We See From the Insurance Side

At Rivas Insurance Group powered by John Galt Insurance, we write a lot of homeowners insurance — which means we feel the movement of the market before the headlines catch up.

Normally, our business is about 90% driven by new home purchases. Lately, it’s closer to 50/50. Half our clients are no longer buying homes — they’re staying put and calling us to reshop their insurance so they can save money.

We’ve also seen a lot of deals fall apart over DTI (debt-to-income ratio). Lenders push us to get premiums as low as possible to make deals work, but the problem isn’t just insurance — it’s buyers coming to the table with car payments, credit card debt, and limited flexibility.

And look, I get it. I’ve been there. I’ve had a big car payment. I’ve had high credit card balances. But if buying a home is the goal, sometimes that means driving a cheaper car for a while or focusing hard on paying down debt. Not just to get approved, but to actually enjoy the house you’re buying. Peace of mind matters too.

We’re also seeing more part-time realtors exit the industry. There are fewer deals to go around, and this is becoming a full-time game again. People who sell 1–3 homes a year are finding it tough to stick it out right now.

So… What Happens Next?

I think South Florida is a little overpriced in certain areas — maybe by 10%. If we see that correct over the next 90 days, we could end up with a more stable, healthy market. If not, I think we may be headed for a local recession in real estate, where activity slows way down.

We’re watching it closely. If our agency shifts from 50/50 to something like 70% of business coming from policy reshops, then we’ll know we’ve officially entered a different cycle. It’s not about helping people buy their dream home — it becomes about helping people keep the home they already have.

And we’re ready for either one.

A Few Real Questions We’re Getting Right Now

How do I lower my homeowners insurance without cutting too much coverage?

If you’ve updated your roof recently, that’s a big win. Some clients are also choosing higher deductibles or excluding certain coverages to save. It’s not ideal, but it’s real. We always quote both options and let the client decide what fits their risk tolerance and budget.

What types of homes are struggling the most with insurance — and where are the biggest savings?

High-value homes are tough — but we’ve seen major changes in that space. Some clients who were paying $25K in premium are now getting quotes around $11K because more admitted carriers are willing to go up to $10M in coverage. Huge difference.

What’s killing deals right now?

DTI. People are showing up with too much debt. I’m not judging — again, I’ve been there. But if you want to own a home, you’ve got to attack your debt and maybe delay that luxury car until after closing.

Who should apply for the new role at Rivas Insurance Group?

We’re hiring a full-time lead generator — or what I call a “CIA Agent” . If you’re not afraid to get on the phone, talk to people, and be trained, you’ll win. You don’t need insurance experience. You just need to be hungry, reliable, and coachable. The rest we can teach.

What are you watching over the next 90 days?We’re watching the mix of our business. If new purchases dry up and most people are just trying to save money, that’s a clear sign the market is tightening. But even if we hit a slowdown, we’ll keep doing what we do: helping families stay financially strong and protecting them along the way.

Final Thought

Whether you're buying a home, staying in your current one, or thinking about changing careers, this market is shifting fast. The people and businesses that stay flexible will win. That’s what we’re focused on right now.

If you’re looking to reshop your insurance, lower your monthly payments, or need a quote on a new home, reach out.

And if your current job isn’t giving you the financial security you're looking for, and you're ready to make moves in a recession-proof industry, apply for our open position at rivasinsurancegroup.com. There’s only one spot, and it will go fast.

Gerry Rivas

rivasinsurancegroup.com